Title: "TIA - an OTC story" Author: Taran Sabharwal, founder of the cryptocurrency over-the-counter trading platform STIX Compiled by: Zombiet

Overview of Net New Supply as of October 31, 2024

We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.

The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.

This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.

Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.

The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.

The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.

History of $TIA OTC on STIX

Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).

In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.

When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.

In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).

summary

Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.

Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it

(责任编辑：基金数据)

• ·挖矿580多少算力
• ·东北证券收盘涨7.01%，主力资金净流入1.12亿元
• ·公积金贷款银行面签-公积金贷款银行面签后多久放款下来
• ·OKX|欧艺官方教程_如何下载并使用欧艺app进行交易
• ·托马帮综合交易所
• ·融资租赁认定标准是什么？
• ·小树时代利息高吗？想从小树时代上申请借款。
• ·10月31日永赢半导体产业智选混合发起A净值增长6.79%，近6个月累计上涨43.41%
• ·狗狗币最便宜多少
• ·如何确定报告的分部内容？
• ·Sei Labs 提议在最近推出的治理框架中采用纯 EVM 架构
• ·中期财报都包括哪些内容？
• ·Solana 社群反擊以太坊 OG 評論：胡說八道的狂熱教徒
• ·10月31日平安医药精选股票C净值下跌2.70%，近1个月累计下跌5.19%
• ·比特币重返10万美元大关 分析师上调预测：或再创新高
• ·10月31日东财远见成长A净值下跌0.04%，今年来累计下跌14.65%