Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：风向标)

• ·自产自销农产品免税怎么做账
• ·pay币是哪个国家的 pay什么币
• ·行情依阻力最小路线
• ·10月31日博道嘉瑞混合C净值下跌0.61%，近1个月累计下跌0.29%
• ·怎么同步sc钱包
• ·10月31日广发港股通优质增长混合A净值下跌0.57%，近1个月累计下跌3.62%
• ·特朗普呼吁美联储降低利率支持经济
• ·10月31日财通均衡优选一年持有混合A净值增长0.50%，近3个月累计上涨17.53%
• ·比特币app排行榜 权威盘点
• ·Tthr和Yllow Card达成合作！将推行非洲青年稳定币教育
• ·The BTC holdings of the US Bitcoin ETF have exceeded one million, and the net inflow of BlackRock IBIT Fund has reached a new high
• ·RNDR价格在一周内飙升了32% 是什么推动了RNDR上涨
• ·日狂人行情分析-狂人日子
• ·以太坊有多少代币
• ·今年什么时候立秋啊-今年什么时候立秋啊?
• ·十一月是什么季节-十一月是什么季节?